Rudy Gay Exit Sparks Beginning of NBA Trade Season

Even though James Harden was traded back in October, the recent trade of Rudy Gay to the Toronto Raptors is the first big move of NBA trade season. In the month leading up to the February 21, 2013 trade deadline, front offices are searching to make moves to make their teams better now, set themselves up for the future, or both. The active Grizzles have already made 2 moves, unloading a large chunk of their bench to get under the luxury tax and then trading the underperforming Gay to get out of paying the remaining three years on his max contract. Here's who they've acquired and lost within the past two weeks.

Received	Traded
Tayshaun Prince (from Pistons)	Rudy Gay (to Raptors)
Ed Davis (from Raptors)	Marreese Speights (to Cavaliers)
Austin Daye (from Pistons)	Wayne Ellington (to Cavaliers)
Jon Leuer (from Cavaliers)	Josh Selby (to Cavaliers)

Speights, Ellington, and Selby were traded in a cap-saving effort to get under the luxury tax for this season. Unfortunately, this cut into their already thin bench, something the Grizzlies mitigated with the Gay trade. As noted in the new collective bargaining agreement, teams will be met with much higher penalties for being over the luxury tax. I think other teams may that Memphis' cue and make similar preemptive moves before the deadline to comply so they end up paying big fines. Gay is a very interesting player, and this trade was one of the more polarizing ones among fans in recent memory.  

Season	G	FG%	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	PTS
2010-11	54	.471	.396	3.6	4.5	.805	19.8
2011-12	65	.455	.312	3.2	4.0	.791	19.0
2012-13	44	.413	.314	2.9	3.8	.776	17.5
2012-13	42	.408	.310	2.9	3.7	.776	17.2
2012-13	2	.487	.364	3.5	4.5	.778	24.5
Career	481	.452	.344	3.1	4.0	.771	17.9

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/6/2013.

Season	G	PER	TS%	eFG%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	WS	WS/48
2010-11	54	17.8	.548	.503	23.3	108	105	2.7	5.5	.123
2011-12	65	17.8	.521	.480	25.1	104	102	2.8	6.0	.120
2012-13	44	14.6	.483	.443	25.5	98	101	0.3	2.9	.086
2012-13	42	14.3	.478	.438	25.3	98	100	0.2	2.7	.085
2012-13	2	21.0	.570	.538	29.6	106	106	0.1	0.2	.114

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/6/2013.

Gay has a reputation as an explosive offensive threat, a player with tremendous athleticism who can get to the basket at will. He also possesses a nice shooting touch, although has never been a great three point shooter. He’s only shot higher than 37% from three in one season since coming into the league, and that was in his fantastic 2010-2011 campaign (of which he was injured for last third of the season and the entire playoffs). However, the general perception is that he’s still the same great player before that season-ending left shoulder injury. He can still perform at those same high levels, but not at the consistent pace he showed pre-injury. During his last one and a half years in Memphis, Gay saw significant drops in many key offensive statistical categories, including PPG, FG%, free throw attempts and a plunge in 3P%. The free throw numbers are important to note because Gay uses his strength and athleticism to initiate contact and get to the line, something he’s slightly digressed in since 2010. With Gay being less effective and slowly becoming less and less apart of the Grizzlies’ offense, it makes sense to trade him and his remaining $50+ million salary.

Ed Davis

The Grizzlies can salvage together what Gay gave them with Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye. Prince is a solid defensive SF who can score 10-15 points a night. Daye is a nice prospect who has great length for his position and has good three point range as well. I also really like Ed Davis  as a young PF who’s made tremendous strides since coming into the league. He'll certainly help their front court depth after trading Speights away to the Cavs. I remember watching the highlights of him in college when the Raptors selected him and was amazed at how skinny he was. For someone without a great shooting touch, it was clear he needed to add a good amount of muscle to hang with big men in the NBA. He’s absolutely lived up to that criticism. He’s also upped his scoring and field goal percentage this season, which is impressive considering he was drafted more as a developmental athlete. It’s nice to see that he’s improved his post game and rebounded at a nice clip during his time in Toronto  However, offense has been a primary struggle for the Grizzlies this season, and I’m not sure what they got in return for Gay helps them significantly on that end of the floor. Regardless, they can safely cobble together Gay’s output while saving millions over the next three seasons. Gay wasn’t helping them score any better anyway, so they’re not really crippled by this trade. Logic wins in Memphis.

With the trade deadline just two weeks away, several teams will look to make moves to make themselves better. Rudy Gay is just the first domino. I’ll be writing profiles over the next couple of weeks on players who may get moved and where they might go before February 21st. Stay tuned.